Now that the vacation is ending and I’ve started to catch up on my AI Maddeness season, I’m moving into what’s been my favorite part of the whole enterprise: the playoff picture! I really love all the possible permutations that can arise when the playoff race gets tight, and if I keep up on conference and division standings for every team (which I have thanks to lessons learned) things get really interesting. This season the AFC East was about as tight as it could get, save the all-mighty Jets who remain far out front as Division champions, no. 1 AFC seed, and all-around god-heads of the league.
Going into week 16 it was the Colts at 8-6* and the Dolphins, Patriots, and Bills all tied at 7-7. It doesn’t get any tighter. In Week 16 there were two huge divisional games: the Patriots played and beat the Bills, which eliminated Buffalo and brought the Pats to 8-7. The Dolphins played and beat the Colts which means the Dolphins moved to 8-7 as well and the Colts lost their lead and created a new 3-way tie going into week 17: the Colts, Patriots, and Dolphins all at 8-7. Complete AI Maddeness!
Going into week 17 the Colts will play a non-conference game against the Vikings whereas the Dolphins play the Patriots for a “win-and-in” divisional match-up that might as well be a playoff game to get into the playoffs. Nothing like the end of the season to create some drama. The last team in the world I want to see in the playoffs is the Colts, so I’ll be playing the Vikings to see if I can knock the Colts out. I’ll also be playing the Patriots because if the they win the Dolphins can still make the playoffs if the Colts lose (the Dolphins have a better common games record). Regardless, if the Colts win they’re in, which is something I’m trying to avoid. In terms of stats, I should be just as worried about Drew Bledsoe and Terry Glenn who’ve lit up the league during the second half of the season, but Madden 2001 loves Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison (not to mention Edgerrin James), so I’ll take my chances with the Pats.
Anyway, below is a detailed breakdown of the AFC East playoff scenario going into week 17 thanks to ChatGPT. If you’re interested in the entire chat (and why would you be?) to arrive at this final AFC East playoff race summary you can find it here. It’s interesting—at least to me—given the tie-breakers detailed in the 2000-2001 rulebook come into play and we have to go as many as four steps in for certain scenarios (in scenario 2a it goes 4 steps deep to Conference Games records). I’ll be playing a few games this week, so it should be a fun one.
The last piece I’m happy about is how good the ChatGPT generated “AFC East – Week 17 Playoff Race” graphic came out. It’s hard to concisely summarize all the moving pieces of this divisional playoff battle, but this visual does a decent job. That said, it took me more than a few attempts to get it right, and no matter how hard I tried ChatGPT refused to add the Pats icon beneath the Dolphins icon in the Key Week 17 Games section of the graphic.
AFC EAST — WEEK 17 SCENARIOS (2000 RULES)
AI Maddeness Week 17 AFC Playoff Race
Starting Point (after Week 16)
All three teams are tied:
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Colts: 8–7
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Dolphins: 8–7
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Patriots: 8–7
Relevant Week 17 Games
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Dolphins @ Patriots (division game)
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Vikings @ Colts (non-division, non-conference)
Jets have already clinched the division and are not involved.
KEY TIEBREAK PRINCIPLES (2000 RULEBOOK)
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Three-team divisional ties start with head-to-head among tied teams
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If unresolved –> division record
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If one team is eliminated, reset to two-team tiebreakers
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Two-team ties use:
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Head-to-head
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Division record
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Common games
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Conference record
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SCENARIO TREE
SCENARIO 1
Colts WIN vs Vikings (finish 9–7)
1A — Dolphins beat Patriots
Final records
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Dolphins: 9–7
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Colts: 9–7
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Patriots: 8–8
Result
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Dolphins — IN
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Colts — IN
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Patriots — OUT
Why
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Patriots fall to 8–8
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Colts and Dolphins both at 9–7 –> both qualify
1B — Patriots beat Dolphins
Final records
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Patriots: 9–7
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Colts: 9–7
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Dolphins: 8–8
Result
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Patriots — IN
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Colts — IN
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Dolphins — OUT
Why
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Dolphins fall to 8–8
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Colts and Patriots both at 9–7 –> both qualify
SCENARIO 2
Colts LOSE vs Vikings (finish 8–8)
Now only one of the AFC East non-champions can advance.
2A — Dolphins beat Patriots
Final records
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Dolphins: 9–7
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Colts: 8–8
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Patriots: 8–8
Automatic qualifier
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Dolphins (9–7)
Remaining tiebreak
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Colts vs Patriots (both 8–8)
Tiebreak result
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Head-to-head: split
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Division record: tied (3–5)
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Common games: tied
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Conference record:
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Colts: 6–6 AFC
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Patriots: 5–7 AFC
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Result
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Dolphins — IN
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Colts — IN
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Patriots — OUT
2B — Patriots beat Dolphins
Final records
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Patriots: 9–7
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Dolphins: 8–8
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Colts: 8–8
Automatic qualifier
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Patriots (9–7)
Remaining tiebreak
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Colts vs Dolphins (both 8–8)
Tiebreak result
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Head-to-head: split
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Division record: tied (3–5)
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Common games:
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Dolphins: 3–5
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Colts: 2–6
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Result
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Patriots — IN
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Dolphins — IN
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Colts — OUT
Master Summary Table
| Colts Result | Dolphins–Patriots Result | Teams In | Team Out |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts WIN | Dolphins WIN | Dolphins, Colts | Patriots |
| Colts WIN | Patriots WIN | Patriots, Colts | Dolphins |
| Colts LOSE | Dolphins WIN | Dolphins, Colts | Patriots |
| Colts LOSE | Patriots WIN | Patriots, Dolphins | Colts |
Big Takeaways (AFC East – Week 17)
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Colts control their destiny.
If the Colts win in Week 17, they qualify regardless of the Dolphins–Patriots result. -
Patriots also control their destiny — but only by winning.
If the Patriots beat the Dolphins, they qualify.
If the Patriots lose, they are eliminated, regardless of what the Colts do. -
Dolphins need help only in one specific case.
The Dolphins qualify unless:-
the Colts win, and
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the Patriots beat the Dolphins.
That is the only scenario in which Miami is eliminated.
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*To be fair, the Colts should have been 9-6 going into week 17 given they beat the Jets in week 14 in a 27-24 nail-biter, but as I noted in that YouTube video description:
NB: this game was played as part of the AI Maddeness season, but due to a technical error to save the week’s games in Madden I had to replay the game otherwise the simulated standings would be totally thrown off. In the replay the Jets man-handled the Colts, so it’s an unfortunate footnote given technically the Colts should be 8-4 not 8-5 going into week 17, which did have big playoff implications as they now potentially face elimination. Poor Peyton 🙂
